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Facebook’s oversight board will announce this morning whether Donald Trump will be allowed back on to the platform, a landmark decision that will have major implications for the political future of the former president and the Republican party.

The social media platform suspended Trump’s account indefinitely four months ago over fears he could stir further violence and unrest following the storming of the Capitol by a mob of the 45th president’s supporters on January 6.

“We believe the risks of allowing the president to continue to use our service during this period are simply too great,” Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said at the time. Later in January, Facebook asked its oversight board — a Supreme Court-style body first appointed in 2020 that hears appeals from users on its content moderation decisions — to review the ban, as well as provide more general recommendations about how the platform should treat rule-breaking content from world leaders.

The decision, which is binding, is expected at about 9am ET, and will dictate whether Trump will be able to regain access to a powerful channel for energising his supporters and raking in fundraising dollars. It will be the biggest test to date of Facebook’s 20-member oversight board, made up of academics, civil rights groups and experts across the political spectrum.

Follow the latest news, including the decision, on our website. And sign up here for Swamp Notes, where Rana Foroohar and Edward Luce discuss the intersection of money and power in US politics

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Washington shies away from open declaration to defend Taiwan The top White House Asia official has warned that any declaration that the US would defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack would carry “significant downsides”. Some experts have called for a shift to “strategic clarity” to make clear to Beijing that the US would defend Taiwan. But Kurt Campbell, the White House Asia tsar, said such a shift entailed risk. Read the whole story.

Janet Yellen says US rates may rise to prevent overheating The US Treasury secretary warned that interest rates may need to rise to keep the economy from overheating, comments that exacerbated a sell-off in technology stocks.

BlackRock accused of inconsistency over Indonesia palm oil The world’s biggest investment group supported a shareholder protest against Procter & Gamble’s sourcing of palm oil from an Indonesian company in which BlackRock itself holds a significant stake.

Antony Blinken rejects claims of US-China ‘cold war’ In an interview with FT editor Roula Khalaf, America’s top diplomat rejected claims the US was entering a cold war with China. Blinken made the comments during a visit to London to discuss how to respond to the challenges posed by Beijing with G7 counterparts.

US equity valuations questioned as risk premium sinks The US equity risk premium, the extra return investors can expect for buying US stocks instead of risk-free government bonds, has fallen to its lowest levels of the past decade by some measures, as the fiery stock market rally stretches valuations.

US equity risk premiums hit historic lows

UK and India agree ‘2030 road map’ to strengthen ties The countries outlined a plan to strengthen bilateral ties in crucial areas such as trade, education and defence following a virtual summit between UK prime minister Boris Johnson and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, as London announced investment deals worth almost £1bn.

Madrid leader scores regional poll victory Spain’s conservative People’s party scored a spectacular victory in a regional election on Tuesday — doubling its vote, inflicting a humiliating defeat on the country’s governing Socialists and prompting the resignation of the leader of the radical leftwing Podemos party.

Linklaters on brink of electing first female senior partner One of the City of London’s “magic circle” law firms is set to elect a female senior partner for the first time in its 183-year history, in the latest example of more women breaking into the top ranks of commercial law.

The US national employment report from ADP is expected to show that private payrolls surged by 800,000 in April from 517,000 in March.

Blinken visits Ukraine The US secretary of state is due to travel to Ukraine and hold a trilateral meeting with Japan and South Korea’s foreign ministers.

Colombia’s finance minister quits over tax reform debacle Despite the withdrawal of a tax bill and the resignation of the country’s finance minister, protesters have vowed to return to the streets.

Europe’s industrial strategy EU digital chief Margrethe Vestager and internal markets commissioner Thierry Breton will present the updated plan on Wednesday following Covid-19 supply chain bottlenecks. (Reuters)

Earnings round-up Booking Holdings, PayPal, Sempra Energy, Uber, General Motors, Etsy, Fox Corp, Stellantis, Hilton, CVS Health report.

The future of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Their 27-year marriage may be “irretrievably broken”, but Bill and Melinda Gates face questions over the future direction, scale and governance of their philanthropic organisation. The FT breaks down the factors involved in its future endowment.

Treemap showing Gates Foundation funding by area, Year ending Dec 31 2019 ($bn) Global development 1.7 Global health 1.5 Global growth and opportunity 0.7 Global policy and advocacy 0.5 US programme 0.5 Other programmes 0.2

Biden confines his radicalism to the home front The US president’s foreign policy is strikingly continuous of Donald Trump’s, writes Janan Ganesh, who argues that the former president is “unignorable.”

Action must replace talk on climate change Centuries from now, our descendants may look back on this decade as the one in which the chances of mitigating irreversible climate damage were lost. If the COP26 summit is to be the decisive moment it should be, Martin Wolf writes, these three things must be done.

A tale of two airline markets Warren Buffett doesn’t admit to many mistakes. Asked about his decision to dump $4bn in US airline shares last May, the Berkshire Hathaway chief executive responded: “I do not consider it a great moment in Berkshire’s history.” Now, most US carriers are unabashedly enthusiastic about the future, but European airlines face different fates, writes Brooke Masters.

Can London reinvent itself? Though often regarded as privileged, London has by some measures been more devastated by Covid-19 than other parts of the UK. As the city emerges from more than a year of suspended animation, it must set about doing what it has often done in its 2,000-year history: reinvent itself in times of turmoil.

Bar chart of Change to the number of people on universal credit, Mar 2020 v Mar 2021 (000s) showing London and the South East have driven the rise in UC claimants

Investment masterclass with Merryn Somerset Webb In this special episode of Money Clinic, columnist Merryn Somerset Webb chats to Claer Barrett about her personal investment strategy — and the forces she believes will shape the stock market in years to come.